# Risk Register

| ID | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner |
|----|------|------------|--------|------------|-------|
| R1 | ESP suspends satellite Gmail account | Medium | High | Own pool, volume caps, app passwords, monitor errors | Operator |
| R2 | ESP detects warmup patterns | Medium | High | Jitter, reply sampling, content diversity, no links | Engineering |
| R3 | AI generates placeholder/spam content | Medium | High | Post-validation, regen loop, blocklists | Engineering |
| R4 | Shared peer pool toxicity (phase 3) | High | Critical | Delay peer network; bounce monitoring | Product |
| R5 | SQLite corruption / lock under load | Low | Medium | Migrate to Postgres before SaaS; queue writes | Engineering |
| R6 | Credential breach | Low | Critical | Encryption, no log leaks, KMS for SaaS | Security |
| R7 | IMAP spam folder mismatch | Medium | Medium | Auto-discovery, provider presets | Engineering |
| R8 | 100% reply rate detection | High (now) | Medium | Reply rate engine (E4) | Engineering |
| R9 | Operator sets max 50 on day 1 | Medium | High | Grow recipe default; UI warnings | Product |
| R10 | Google Postmaster spam rate >0.3% | Medium | High | Auto-pause, reduce volume, rescue | Operations |
| R11 | Legal/ToS violation (warmup as deception) | Low | High | ToS: only owned mailboxes; internal engagement | Legal |
| R12 | OpenRouter free model quality | Medium | Low | Model fallback list; paid tier option | Engineering |
| R13 | Cron overlap double-sends | Medium | Medium | Idempotency keys, job queue | Engineering |
| R14 | Primary warms too fast vs domain age | Medium | High | Domain age check; min 14-day warning | Product |
| R15 | Competitor ESP crackdown on warmup industry | Low | High | Differentiate on own-pool + self-hosted control | Product |

## Risk heat map

```
Impact
  High   | R4 R6 R9 R10 R11 R15
         | R1 R2 R3 R8 R14
  Medium | R5 R7 R13
  Low    | R12
         +------------------
           Low   Med   High
                Likelihood
```

## Top 5 actions (before scaling FillCare)

1. **Implement E4** — reply rate sampling (addresses R8, R2)
2. **Implement E6** — AI validator (addresses R3)
3. **Implement E2** — Grow recipe enforced (addresses R9, R14)
4. **Run DNS checklist** on fillcareapp.com (addresses R10, R14)
5. **Add auto-pause** on spam rate (addresses R10, R1)

## Monitoring triggers

| Metric | Warning | Critical |
|--------|---------|----------|
| Spam placement rate | >15% 7d avg | >30% 3d avg |
| Bounce rate | >2% | >5% |
| Auth failures | 1 per mailbox | 3 consecutive |
| AI validation fail rate | >5% | >15% |
| Reply rate deviation | >±10% from target | >±20% |

## Review cadence

- Weekly during active warmup campaigns
- Update register after each sprint retro