Reply Rate Engine

Problem

Current MVP replies to every matched warmup email (~100%). Real humans and reputable warmup tools reply to a fraction of mail (typically 30%, max recommended 45%).

Configuration

Parameter	Default	Min	Max recommended
`replyRatePercent`	30	10	45

Set per WarmupCampaign. Hard cap at 45% in validation.

Semantics

Reply rate = of warmup emails received by the primary (or sent to primary from satellites), the percentage that receive an AI-generated reply that day.

Not the same as cold-email response rate — this is warmup engagement simulation only.

Algorithm

On rescuer cycle (per received warmup message)

function shouldReply(campaign, message, statsToday):
  target = campaign.replyRatePercent
  actual = statsToday.replies / max(statsToday.received, 1) * 100

  if actual >= target:
    return false  // quota met for today

  // Probabilistic: bias toward hitting target by end of day
  remaining = statsToday.received - statsToday.replies
  needed = ceil(statsToday.received * target/100) - statsToday.replies
  probability = needed / max(remaining, 1)

  return random() < probability

Properties

Deterministic enough to converge on daily target
Stochastic enough to avoid fixed patterns
Never exceeds 45% even if configured wrong (clamp)

What still happens at 0% reply (for a given message)

Even when not replying:

Spam rescue still runs (move to inbox, flag)
Mark as read
Log status may be complete without replied — new status: engaged_no_reply

Extended WarmupStatus enum

Status	Meaning
sent	Delivered from satellite
delivered	Confirmed in primary inbox (optional)
rescued_from_spam	Moved from spam folder
engaged_no_reply	Read/flagged, no reply sent
replied	Reply sent
complete	Thread closed

Reply direction

Step	From	To
1. Warmup send	Satellite	Primary
2. Reply (if sampled)	Primary	Satellite

Maintains realistic thread: primary appears engaged with incoming mail.

Daily reply budget

plannedReplies = ceil(plannedSends * replyRatePercent / 100)

Shown on dashboard: replies today: 8/12 planned

Edge cases

Case	Handling
All messages arrive at 23:59	Spread replies across rescuer cycles
Reply SMTP fails	Retry once; log error; don't count toward rate
Primary in error	Pause replies; satellites may still send
Satellite in error	Exclude from pool; rebalance

ESP rationale

100% reply rate on automated mail is a detection signal. Variable reply rate + rescue without reply on some messages mimics real mailbox behavior more closely.

2.7 KiB Raw Blame History